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水皮杂谈降准迎来开门红老船票能否登上新客船
2020-01-08 00:54   来源:  www.carrylines.com   评论:0 点击:

水皮杂谈降准迎来开门红老船票能否登上新客船感知中国经济的真实温度,见证逐梦时代的前行脚步。谁能代表201

感知中国经济的真实温度,见证逐梦时代的前行脚步。谁能代表2019年度商业最强驱动力?2020年1月9日,2019十大经济年度人物颁奖典礼将于北京751D·PARK盛大召开,敬请期待。【】

Feel the real temperature of the Chinese economy, witness the pace of the dream-driven era. who can represent the strongest driving force for business 2019? On January 9,2020, the 2019 Big Ten Economic Person of the Year Awards ceremony will be held in Beijing 751D MARK Grand, please look forward to it. 【】

  2020年的第一次降准比预期的要早一些。此前大家根据经验判断,春节前的可能性要大一些,但是谁也没想到大过节的央行就突然宣布了,多多少少有些情理之中预料之外的感觉。

The first drop in 2020 was earlier than expected. Previously, according to the experience, before the spring festival is more likely, but no one thought that the central bank suddenly announced the festival, more or less some reasonable unexpected feeling.

  因为降准不是什么秘密,总理李克强已经在不同场合作过类似的表态,市场其实预期圣诞前后就有举动,但是没有想到央行按兵不动,不按常理出牌,不过考虑到2019年1月4日李克强走访银行召集座谈会并且宣布降准的过往,这种安排均是正常的,没必要想太多。如果一定要作个对比,我们可以发现,2019年两次宣布时间和实施时间不一样:第一次生效时差是20天,第二次生效时差是10天。而这一次生效时差是5天,一次比一次短,似乎也在说明,一次比一次更加紧迫。

Because the cut is no secret, prime minister li keqiang has co-operated in a similar position in different venues, the market actually expected to move around christmas, but did not expect the central bank to move, not according to the common sense, but considering that mr li visited the bank on january 4,2019 to convene a forum and announced the past of the cut, this arrangement is normal, need not think too much. If a comparison must be made, we can find that the time of the two announcements in 2019 is different from the time of implementation: the first effective time difference is 20 days, and the second effective time difference is 10 days. And this time the time difference is five days, one time is shorter, it also seems to explain, one time is more urgent.

  这一次全面降准释放的流动性在8000亿左右,按照央行的说法体现了逆周期调节,增加了金融机构支持实体经济的稳定的资金来源,有利于实现货币信贷、社会融资规模增长同经济发展相适应,为高质量发展和供给侧结构性改革营造适宜的货币金融环境,并且用市场化改革办法疏通货币政策传导,有利于降低银行资金成本150亿,中小银行可获1500亿规模投向小微民营企业,当然也有利于春节前现金投放形成对冲,保持流动性总体稳定灵活适度,并非大水漫灌。央行的解释是中规中矩的,中国的银行存款准备金率在全球都偏高,目前依然有13%,而中性相对应的应该在12%上下,所以,如果年内再次降准也是合理的、正常的。

This total reduction in liquidity is around 800 billion, according to the central bank, reflecting the counter-cyclical adjustment, increasing the stable source of funds for financial institutions to support the real economy, helping to achieve monetary credit, social financing scale growth in line with economic development, creating a suitable monetary and financial environment for high-quality development and supply-side structural reform, and using market-oriented reform to dredge monetary policy transmission, which is conducive to reducing the cost of bank funds 15 billion, small and medium-sized banks can get 150 billion to invest in small private enterprises, of course, also conducive to the pre-Spring festival cash investment to form hedging, maintain overall stability and flexibility, not large flooding. The central bank's explanation is modest, with china's bank reserve ratio on a global high, still 13%, and its neutral equivalent at around 12%, so it would be reasonable and normal if the year were to fall again.

  降准首当其冲的反应来自股市,正是降准这一利好,让A股迎来了开门红。当天上证上涨%,深成指上涨%,创业板上涨了%,上证是创下半年来的新高,而深圳指数均创下2019年以来的新高,坐实了相当一部分投资者对春季躁动行情的期望。而事实上正是2019年初的降准引爆了当年的反弹行情,降准第二天,上证大涨%,深圳涨%,之后,上证从2440点一路狂飙到3288点,盘中涨幅超过%,4月以后上证逐级回落,8月探底2733点;9月6日二次降准公布,当天上证指数涨%,深成指涨%,9月16日冲高3042点,此后也是逐级回落到11月底的2857点。这一次降准之后,市场会不会重复此前的故事还有待观察,因为就在元旦同一天,A股的精神领袖发布的业绩预告让人大失所望。根据预测,茅台的年度增长15%左右,远低于一般希望的30%,甚至对于2020年也只作到10%增长的预告,茅台的董事长更是在贵州茅台大跌5%之后表态维持30%的长期增长是不现实,茅台的神话被无情打破,二天之间,股价由1188元直下1088元,跌去整整100元,市值蒸发1256亿,北上资金明显流出。贵州茅台在2019年初不过620元,年中一路上涨最高到元,一定程度上形成A股上涨的源动力,带领、、、美的电器、格力空调一众蓝筹指标股攻城拔寨,屡创新高,而今偃旗息鼓,谁再充当先锋,谁又号令三军,谁又扮演定海神针,人无远虑必有近忧。

The first to bear the brunt of the response from the stock market, it is this good cut, let A-share ushered in a start. The Shanghai Stock Exchange rose%, the Shenzhen Composite Index rose%, the gem rose%, the Shanghai Stock Exchange hit a half-year high, while the Shenzhen index all hit a high since 2019, sitting down to a significant number of investors'expectations of a spring restlessness. In fact, it was in early 2019 that the fall triggered the rebound in the year, the next day, the Shanghai Stock Exchange rose%, Shenzhen up%, after the Shanghai Stock Exchange from 2440 points to 3288 points, the intraday increase more than%, after April, the Shanghai Stock Exchange fell to 2733 points in August, the second time on September 6, the Shanghai Stock Exchange index rose%, deep into the index of 3042 points, September 16 is also back to the end of November 2857 points. After this cut, it remains to be seen whether the market will repeat the previous story, as on the same day as New Year's Day, A-share's spiritual leaders issued a dismal performance forecast. According to the forecast, maotai's annual growth of about 15%, far less than the general hope of 30%, even for 2020 is only a 10% growth forecast, maotai's chairman even after the fall of 5% in guizhou maotai to maintain a long-term growth of 30% is unrealistic, maotai myth was ruthlessly broken, in two days, the share price from 1188 yuan to 1088 yuan, down a full 100 yuan, market value evaporation of 125.6 billion, the north capital outflow is obvious. Guizhou Moutai in early 2019 only 620 yuan, the highest rise in the year to the yuan, to a certain extent, the formation of A-share rise in the source of power, leading,,, the United States of electrical appliances, Gree air-conditioning a number of blue-chip index stocks, repeatedly hit a new high, now, who again act as a pioneer, who also ordered the three armies, who also play Dinghai god needle, people have no concern.

  央行降准当然不是因为股市,作为逆周期调控的手段,央行释放的流动性主要还是对冲经济下行压力,避免更大的失速,让调节的节奏拉长一点变缓一点。中国经济新常态的L型走势,拐点还没有出现,出现之后也不会立即形成V字型或W型再或许U型反弹,这一点正在形成共识,过去流动性的形成主要依赖外汇占款人民币投放,如今外汇储备相对稳定,相应的投放只能靠降准来补充,这和刺激一毛钱关系也没有。人民币币值的稳定比什么都重要,不仅是财富的象征,更与千百万人民群众的切身利益相关,央行重申不搞“大水漫灌”,不管你们信不信,反正,水皮是相信的,希望大家也相信,说的是真的。

The central bank's reduction is certainly not because stocks, as a means of counter-cyclical regulation, allow the central bank to release liquidity primarily to hedge against downward pressure, avoid greater stalling, and slow the pace of regulation a little longer. There is a consensus that the new normal L-type trend in China's economy, where the inflection point has not yet emerged and that it will not immediately form a V-type or W-type or U-type rebound, is emerging. The stability of the value of the renminbi is more important than anything, not only as a symbol of wealth, but also as a matter of vital interests for millions of people.The central bank has reaffirmed its commitment not to \"flood irrigation \".


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